0806 GMT - Singapore will likely lower its 2026 GDP growth forecast in May, Citi Research economist Wei Zheng Kit says in a note. The central bank's monetary policy statement said the Middle East situation is evolving, and remains highly uncertain, with growth this year likely to "step down" compared to 2025, he notes. "The [monetary policy statement] stressed that the positive output gap will narrow in 2026 and 'average around zero percent' in 2026--which still leaves open the possibility of marginally positive or negative outturns," he says. Citi expects officials to lower Singapore's 2026 GDP growth forecast to 1.5% to 3.5%, from the current 2.0%-4.0%. (amanda.lee@wsj.com)

0800 GMT - The dollar falls to a fresh six-week low against a basket of currencies on hopes for renewed U.S.-Iran talks to end the war. President Trump said the "right people" in Iran had reached out and still want to make a deal after talks between the two sides broke down at the weekend. The remarks improve risk sentiment and lower oil prices, weakening the dollar due to its safe-haven role and America's position as a net oil exporter. "From here, we'll need to see clearer progress towards a permanent ceasefire to take the DXY dollar index back to pre-war levels," ING's Francesco Pesole says in a note. The DXY falls to as low as 98.114. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0721 GMT - Even if the Middle East conflict is resolved quickly, the upward impact on inflation in Australia, including second-round effects, will be almost immediate and material, opening a road to interest-rate increases in May and August, says Stephen Wu, economist at UBS. The negative impact on real growth would be more drawn out over the coming months or even quarters, he adds. The more likely timing for rate hikes is still the Reserve Bank of Australia's next meeting in May as well as August, given that headline inflation likely topped 4.8% year over year in 1Q. (james.glynn@wsj.com; X @JamesGlynnWSJ)

0719 GMT - Yields on U.K. government bonds fall on renewed optimism amid reports that the U.S. and Iran could resume discussions to end the Middle East war. "Investors showed cautious optimism after signals that negotiations could resume despite the recent breakdown, supporting sentiment," IG analysts say in a note. Ten-year gilt yields fall 5.8 basis points to last trade at 4.809%, Tradeweb data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

0712 GMT - The Swiss franc's recent weaker performance could reflect foreign exchange interventions from the Swiss National Bank, Commerzbank's Michael Pfister says in a note. Following an initial rush to safe-haven assets in early March, the franc has become one of the worst-performing G-10 currencies, he says. It is possible the SNB has followed through on its threats to weaken the franc, although it could take some time before this is confirmed, Pfister says. The next data on forex market operations is not available until the end of June. However, market participants shouldn't expect a high figure, he says. "After all, the SNB has barely intervened in the foreign exchange market since early 2024." The euro trades flat at 0.9214 francs. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0711 GMT - Gold prices rise to $4,800 a troy ounce, supported by a softer U.S. dollar and oil below $100 a barrel. In early European trading, New York gold futures rise 0.7% to $4,802.70 an ounce, while silver is up 2.1% to $77.25 an ounce. The U.S. dollar index--which tracks the greenback against a basket of major currencies--slips 0.1% to 98.24. Iran's foreign minister said talks with the U.S. have made progress despite no agreement being made yet, while U.S.-brokered negotiations between Israel and Lebanon are set to begin Tuesday in Washington. Traders are now awaiting U.S. producer price data, though the run-up to the Federal Reserve's April policy decision is otherwise relatively quiet. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

0710 GMT - The Singapore central bank's tone in Tuesday's statement appears slightly more dovish than they expected, four members of BofA Global Research say in a research report. "While the policy statement emphasized potential for global inflation pressures to be exacerbated, it emphasized more on drivers that could deepen growth drag," the members say. BofA's base-case scenario now assumes the Monetary Authority of Singapore pausing potential tightening in July, compared with its previous expectation for further slope steepening of the Singapore dollar nominal effective exchange rate's policy band. However, BofA continues to closely watch triggers that could spur the MAS to take further steps and tighten policies further, the members add. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)

0709 GMT - Singapore's central bank is likely to hold its monetary policy settings in the near term, say Barclays's Brian Tan and Audrey Ong in a note. They reckon that the Monetary Authority of Singapore's move to tighten policy Tuesday was pre-emptive, suggesting concern over the potential of the current commodities price surge to destabilize domestic inflation expectations. While Barclays's base case is for no further adjustments to the policy band, they note the risks are tilted toward further tightening if Singapore's 2026 or 2027 average core inflation comes close to 2.5%--the top-end of MAS's target range--or higher. The MAS uses the exchange rate as a policy tool for maintaining price stability as trade flows dwarf the island nation's domestic activity. (megan.cheah@wsj.com)

0701 GMT - Singapore's consumer outlook appears cautiously positive to analysts at BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions. The analysts forecast real household spending to grow by 3.1% in 2026, up from 3.9% in 2025. While the city-state's economic growth is expected to slow over the year, the government's support packages to households and the strength of the global AI-driven capex cycle should boost consumer sentiment, they say. A tight labour market will support wage growth, but an uptick in inflation may erode some gains, BMI adds.(amanda.lee@wsj.com)

0701 GMT - Eurozone government bond yields fall, tracking U.S. Treasury yields lower, as market sentiment improves due to prospects of renewed peace talks between the U.S. and Iran. The prospect of a peace deal, as well as the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, is key to keeping energy prices--and inflation--in check. This would also mitigate the growth impact of the Middle East war. Bond supply will be significant in the eurozone on Tuesday. Dutch and German bond auctions are due, alongside France's syndication of a new June 2037-dated green OAT. The 10-year German Bund yield falls 3.2 basis points to 3.055%. The 10-year French OAT yield loses 4.3 basis points to 3.700%, according to Tradeweb. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0700 GMT - Singapore's inflation trajectory beyond this year will depend heavily on global energy and food prices, the Monetary Authority of Singapore says in a report. Global oil prices are likely to remain above pre-Middle East conflict levels for some time, even if supplies from the region are restored. "This is due to the protracted time required to restore compromised production as well as the expected increased global demand to replenish strategic energy reserves," MAS says. MAS expects inflation to average around 2.5% in 2H 2026, before easing progressively over 2027 to its historical trend.(amanda.lee@wsj.com)
source: https://www.tradingview.com/news/DJN_DN20260414001320:0/