TD Cowen понижи целевата цена на акциите на Strategy до 350 долара и започна да анализира акциите на Sharplink, Strive, Nakamoto и Smarter Web, препоръчвайки закупуване на всички тях

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TD Cowen reduced its price target on Strategy (MSTR) to $350, a 20.5% cut from the prior $440, while holding its buy rating on the largest publicly traded corporate holder of bitcoin. The investment bank also added coverage of four smaller digital asset treasury firms, assigning buy ratings to each.

In a note to investors on Thursday, TD Cowen analysts Lance Vitanza and Jonathan Navarrete attributed the revised Strategy price target to a "lower bitcoin price deck" and a reduction in the valuation multiple applied to the company's projected bitcoin gains.

The analysts project Strategy's "BTC gain" at $7.87 billion for fiscal year 2026, down from $10.17 billion in 2025, though their investment thesis remains rooted in the company's ability to convert market appetite for volatility into bitcoin on an "effectively leveraged basis."

Strategy, which transitioned from an enterprise software focus to a bitcoin treasury model in 2020, currently holds a net debt of $5.94 billion and has a market capitalization of $41.88 billion, according to TD Cowen. The Tysons Corner, Virginia-based company holds 766,970 BTC acquired at an average price of $75,700 per BTC, The Block’s data dashboard shows.

TD Cowen's base case for Strategy assumes bitcoin reaches $140,000 by December 2026, with the company acquiring about $5 billion in bitcoin per quarter.

In an upside scenario, bitcoin rises to $175,000 by December 2026, a 40% increase from the prior record, with acquisitions exceeding $5 billion quarterly. The downside scenario assumes bitcoin falls to $25,000 by Dec. 2026, an 80% decline, with acquisitions suspended due to market conditions or loss of capital market access.

The analysts also outlined risks to the price target. These include the company’s high correlation to bitcoin’s market price, the possibility of a decline in the premium embedded in Strategy’s share price, regulatory or political developments tied to corporate bitcoin holdings, and operational risks related to custody, including potential loss of private keys.

Coverage of emerging digital asset treasury firms

Beyond the Strategy update, TD Cowen formally initiated coverage of what it called a nascent industry sector. The firm argued that public bitcoin (BTC) and ether (ETH) treasury companies represent operating activities that add value to investors and their underlying digital asset ecosystems, adding in its note that the sector "is likely here to stay and could command increasing investor attention over time."

The four newly added companies are Sharplink (SBET), Strive (ASST), Nakamoto Holdings (NAKA), and The Smarter Web Company (SWC.LN). Three of the four focus on bitcoin accumulation, while Sharplink is structured around an ether treasury strategy. All received buy ratings from TD Cowen.

The analysts gave Sharplink a $16 price target based on estimated ether gains of about $93 million for fiscal 2026 and an ether price assumption near $3,650 by Dec. 2026. TD Cowen described the company as an institutional-grade Ethereum treasury platform designed to accumulate ether and generate staking yield above that of spot ether exchange-traded products.

Strive was initiated with a $26 price target. The valuation is tied to projected bitcoin dollar gains of about $142 million for fiscal 2026, using a 2x multiple and a bitcoin price assumption of roughly $140,000 by the end of 2026.

Meanwhile, Nakamoto Holdings, founded in May 2025 by David Bailey, received a $1 price target. The firm's valuation is based on an estimated BTC gain of $394 million for fiscal 2027 under similar bitcoin price assumptions. The analysts described Nakamoto as a public bitcoin treasury company that combines internal treasury operations with minority stakes in international bitcoin treasury firms and related operating businesses.

Nakamoto has also proposed a reverse stock split, according to a recent SEC filing, which would allow the board to consolidate shares at a ratio ranging from 1-for-20 to 1-for-50 to help maintain its Nasdaq listing.

The Smarter Web Company, a UK-based firm that uplisted to the London Stock Exchange in February 2026 after raising £225 million ($302 million) in its first six months as a public vehicle, received a £1 ($1.34) price target. The target is based on an estimated BTC gain of £52 million ($70 million) for fiscal 2027 and a bitcoin price assumption near £106,000 ($140,000) by Dec. 2026. TD Cowen said SWC seeks to grow its bitcoin holdings through capital markets activity while maintaining its legacy web design and marketing business.

For the four new coverage names, TD Cowen listed common risks including fluctuating cryptocurrency prices, political and regulatory risk, financial and operational leverage, and changes in the ability to access capital markets.

Specific risks to the price targets include Sharplink's reliance on a material increase in ether prices, Strive's need to regain accretive capital market access, Nakamoto's $210 million Kraken loan maturing in December 2026, and Smarter Web's limited liquidity from a $30 million Coinbase credit line.

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