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1339 ET - Major cryptocurrencies have been under pressure as rhetoric around the Strait of Hormuz ramps up, including President Trump's Truth Social posts, one of which he calls for the U.S. Navy "to shoot and kill any boat" placing mines. Analysts say that cryptocurrency has been hewing closely to trading seen on the stock market, which is partially because the main worry of cryptocurrencies being adopted by users is giving way to the next step of integrating blockchain into traditional financial systems, says Abe Chernin and Robby Letson of Cornerstone Research. Bitcoin falls 0.8% to $77,839, according to data from LSEG. Ethereum falls 3.1% to $2,317, XRP drops 0.5% to $1.43, and solana falls 1.9% to $85.49. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

1247 ET - After a 2025 that resulted in a market capitalization of $308 billion and over $33 trillion in volume being transacted, stablecoins are seen as entering its next stage of growth, says analysts with CoinDesk Research in a report. CoinDesk says that stablecoins have gone from being a solution to allow swaps between currencies and becoming the backbone of DeFi applications to now what CoinDesk calls its "institutional era" - the deeper integration of stablecoins and blockchain technology into existing global financial systems. DeFi continues to be the source of over 48% of stablecoin activity in 2025, but centralized financial institutions like PayPal are handling an increasing amount of these transactions, nearly 25% in 2025. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

1232 ET - The European Central Bank's key challenge at next week's meeting will be balancing its messaging on inflation risks against a fragile growth outlook, Allspring Global Investments' Rushabh Amin says in a note. "The Governing Council faces a difficult backdrop: growth remains weak, with the euro area hovering near stagnation," the portfolio manager says. Domestic demand is soft and credit growth subdued, reinforcing the case for eventual easing, Amin says. "This must be balanced against persistent and increasingly decoupled inflation dynamics." Allspring Global Investments expects the ECB to hold rates steady in April. Money markets assign a 20% probability of a rate hike this month, according to LSEG. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

1208 ET - As energy-related price increases burden consumers' wallets and raise business costs, a survey released by the Kansas City Fed offered one bright spot for customers buying those products. In the survey which measures U.S. factory activity — almost all firms reported higher transportation costs in the last two months, but most are passing through only 0-20% of energy-related cost increases to customers. "Our costs are up again due to market instability," a survey respondent said. We cannot increase them again without losing customers." (jessica.coacci@wsj.com)

1159 ET - Treasury yields remain under pressure as Wall Street avoids risk amid fading hopes of a quick resolution to the conflict in the Middle East. President Trump orders the Navy to "shoot and kill" small boats putting mines in the Strait of Hormuz. Oil futures rise more than 1% and dollar indexes are flat. U.S. April flash manufacturing PMI rises more than expected, to 54 from 52.4. Flash services PMI also surprises on the upside, but less so, rising to 51.3 from 51.1. The 10-year yield is at 4.298% and the two-year at 3.806%, both close to yesterday levels. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)

1142 ET - The passage of the CLARITY Act, which would define the classification and regulation of cryptocurrency in the U.S., is "critical" in shifting the market toward its next stages of maturation, says Abe Chernin and Robby Letson of Cornerstone Research. "Think about the internet in the '90s — people were buying crazy dotcom stocks," explains Chernin. "Then what happened, the technology underlying the internet was really valuable - we're kind of starting further down that path." They see the next stages for the market as essentially upgrading "the plumbing for the global financial system."The CLARITY Act is currently in the Senate, with the potential of passing next month. Bitcoin is down 0.2% to $78,311, while ethereum falls 2.3% to $2,339 and XRP is down 0.2%. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

1108 ET - The U.K. could face higher market turbulence than the U.S. and the eurozone due to its poor economic and inflation outlook, Validus Risk Management's Shane O'Neill says in a note. U.K. markets have recorded high volatility since the start of the Middle East conflict as investors quickly repriced Bank of England interest-rate expectations. Investors shifted from fully pricing in two quarter-point BOE rate cuts this year prior to the war, to fully pricing in two rate rises given inflation concerns. "The combination of geopolitical risk, energy-driven inflation shocks, and uncertain central bank responses creates an environment where markets can, and will, move quickly," O'Neill says. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

1049 ET - Higher inflation is expected to push up borrowing costs for U.K. inflation-linked bonds and overall borrowing expenses, Union Bancaire Privee's Peter Kinsella says in a note. Around 24% of the U.K.'s debt stock is inflation-linked and is vulnerable to rising inflation, Kinsella says. Data Wednesday showed U.K. annual consumer-price inflation rose to 3.3% in March as the Middle East conflict caused a jump in energy prices. The real yield on the September 2035 inflation-linked gilt last trades at 1.474%, having traded below 1.3% just prior to the start of the war in Iran, Tradeweb data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

1035 ET - How businesses react to a large surge in costs could be a key factor in whether Bank of England policymakers raise interest rates, BNY's Geoff Yu says in a note. Data Wednesday showed U.K. producer input prices surged 4.4% on-month in March as energy prices jumped due to the Middle East war. Producer output inflation--the increase in wholesale goods prices--was much more muted, however, at 0.9%. Such a large spread between input and output prices is "unsustainable for corporate profitability," Yu says. Rate hikes would be likely if companies opt to raise output prices as wage demands would likely strengthen. On the other hand, if they choose severe cost-cutting, this would lessen pressure for rate increases, he says. (jessica.fleetham@wsj.com)

1007 ET - Next week's could be Jerome Powell's last Fed meeting as the central bank's chair. But traders in interest-rate futures markets see little chance that a near-term change in the policy trajectory in on the way. Futures-market rate bets reflect just a 15% probability that the Fed will budge from its current 3.5% to 3.75% interest-rate setting before the end of September, and only a 30% chance that rates will rise or fall before the end of the year. Bets on any possible 2026 rate moves are now tilted toward a further cut, not a hike, although some analysts think that the Fed may offer more neutral, bi-directional guidance on its next step at the April meeting next week. ( matt.grossman@wsj.com ; @mattgrossman)

0957 ET - The euro-dollar exchange rate remains tied to oil prices in the near term amid the Iran war, HSBC analysts say in a note. The longer the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, the greater the risk to global energy supplies and the more vulnerable the euro is against the dollar, they say. The Pentagon has told Congress it could take six months to fully clear mines in the strait, indicating it could take time before normal flow returns even if a peace deal is agreed. "If the eurozone economy continues to deteriorate, euro-dollar would face further headwinds," the analysts say. The euro falls 0.1% to $1.1690, having reached a 10-day low of $1.1679 earlier, LSEG data show. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0955 ET - The dollar's petrodollar status, where oil is largely priced and invoiced in dollars, could be eroded over time as countries outside the U.S. attempt to reduce their reliance on the currency, MUFG Bank's Derek Halpenny says. "I think one of the incentives in terms of denominating energy transactions in other currencies is to reduce the threat of [dollar] weaponization," he says. This is part of de-dollarization, or the global shift away from the dollar, that has been underway for years, he says. It makes sense for certain countries to agree swap lines to hold each other's currencies and then denominate transactions in non-dollar currencies, he says. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
source: https://www.tradingview.com/news/DJN_DN20260423010535:0/